The Republican Drubbing
Underperformance across the board may prove their undoing in 2024.
There are several takeaways from last night’s Republican drubbing in the mid-term elections. I call it a drubbing because the Republican tsunami turned into a ripple as the party overall underperformed expectations. Several important factors were in play last night:
- Trump, the elephant in the china shop;
- the Libertarian Party as spoiler (see Georgia);
- the United States is more divided and has moved farther left than many realize;
- Polls are worthless;
- Candidate quality matters.
The Trump Factor
Three days before the election, this narcissistic sap took a potshot at the Republican’s most successful politician, referring to him as Ron DeSanctimonius. This childish name-calling rebounded on Trump when he was trashed with well-deserved criticism from his party. DeSantis is well-liked in the Republican party and especially with his constituents in Florida. Trump recovered somewhat by endorsing DeSantis during a rally the next day and making it clear to reporters on Tuesday that he had voted for the Florida governor. No one expects the comity to last. This is a preview of the 2024 election campaign and what voters can expect from this aging man-child.
Republicans also shouldn’t overlook the fact that Raphael Warnock of Georgia might not be a factor in this election had Trump in 2020 not told the state’s Republican voters not to bother voting in the runoff election because the voting was rigged. The resulting low turnout on the right allowed Warnock to gain the seat.
The icing on the cake? Trump issued a statement celebrating the defeat of Republican Joe O’Dea in Colorado. WTF?
Seventy percent of Trump-endorsed candidates won their races, with notable high-profile exceptions like Mehmet Oz, who lost to John Fetterman in Pennsylvania; and Don Bolduc, who was defeated by New Hampshire incumbent Maggie Hassan. Trump still enjoys considerable influence within the Republican party and is widely anticipated to announce his candidacy for President next week. Voters, however, are wary and exhausted by the juvenile name-calling. Trump may find it’s not nearly as clever or effective as it was in 2016.
The third-party impact in Georgia
Third-party candidates rarely poll above two or three percent in elections, but that can draw enough voters to tip the scale between Republican and Democratic candidates in extremely tight races. Georgia is a classic case this year.
As of this morning (November 9th), Senate incumbent Raphael Warnock holds a narrow lead (49.42%) over Republican candidate Herschel Walker (48.52%). If neither candidate gets 50% of the vote, it goes to a runoff election on December 6th.
Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver drew 2.07% of the vote, or 80,955 ballots, more than enough to give either Warnock or Walker the push needed to win and avoid a runoff. As in 2020, we again may not know who controls Congress until the runoff election. Libertarians are free to run their candidates, of course, but for Democrats and Republicans, the third-party effect on election outcomes cannot be discounted.
Polls—Why do we pay these people?
As the mid-term elections neared, polls increasingly predicted the Republican wave was turning into a tsunami that would sweep the Democrats away and usher in overwhelming Republican majorities in both the House and Senate. Many of the polls were commissioned by partisan groups on both sides, so it’s no surprise some of them delivered the results their clients desired.
It was generally assumed that Biden’s low approval numbers would be reflected in the election results, but Democrats outperformed expectations despite Biden. Political analyst Steve Hilton on Fox News predicted the better-than-expected performance may give Biden more power to resist calls for him to step aside in 2024.
The pollsters’ poor performance may be a result of urban bias, conducting more polling in cities where Democrats generally dominate and undercounting rural Republicans. People may also be reluctant to talk to pollsters, lying about their true leanings toward candidates and issues such as gun control or immigration.
Polls most recently performed poorly in 2016 and 2020 and their streak continued in 2022. Whatever they’re paying those people, it’s too much.
Candidate quality matters
Both parties are guilty of fielding candidates of dubious quality. On the Republican side, Marjory Taylor Greene stands out, a Trump acolyte and election denier steeped in conspiracy theories who nevertheless won reelection yesterday. Mehmet Oz, running against Democrat John Fetterman, a stroke victim suffering from aphasia resulting in a speech impediment, failed nonetheless to win what should have been an easy seat. Lauren Boebert in Colorado’s third district, a normally safe Republican haven, suffered an unexpectedly strong challenge from Democrat Adam Frisch, who looks likely to prevail.
Some chaff will inevitably be found among the wheat, but both parties, especially the Republicans, need to field serious, quality candidates. The country is crying out for leadership.
America is trending more socialist…and more divided than ever
The nearly even results of the 2022 mid-terms served to emphasize the current state of the American experiment, a country deeply and evenly divided between two factions with irreconcilable differences.
Three more counties in eastern Oregon voted on November 8th to join the Greater Idaho movement to secede and join Idaho. This makes 11 of 13 eastern counties that have approved the measure.
Similar secession movements are awakening in northern Colorado, eastern Washington state, and western Virginia. While most pundits poo-poo the idea of an American divorce, more people than ever are beginning to acknowledge that the divisions are overwhelming and real. The vision for America held by the Democrats—autocratic control, censorship, conformity, control of the means of production—contrasts sharply with Republicans’ desire for traditional values, small government, liberty, and self-sufficiency. Secession movements are beginning to pop up on the radar and may someday reach a critical mass that cannot be ignored.
Where do we go from here?
Regardless of whether the Republicans ultimately win control of the Senate, along with the House, their slim margins will limit their ability to accomplish very much legislatively. Internal divisions, fomented and encouraged by Donald Trump will reduce the right’s effectiveness.
Between now and the 2024 Presidential election, it appears the status quo will mostly hold, with small Republican majorities able to largely stymie Biden’s agenda and ensure stalemate continues. That’s not necessarily bad; our wallets and liberties are never safer than with an evenly divided government.
The Republicans have received a message from voters if they choose to see it. That message is the Florida results in general, and Governor Ron DeSantis in particular. DeSantis, like Trump, knows how to punch back, but without the rancor and childish insults employed by the former President. DeSantis has proven to be a leader who can accomplish things despite sometimes overwhelming odds. Trump is no longer the shoo-in for re-election in 2024 that some Republicans seem to think. The 2024 Presidential election is theirs to lose and Trump is how they may do it.