Recently on Tucker Carlson Tonight podcaster Jason Whitlock, a frequent guest of Tucker’s, brought up a subject formerly taboo in public discussion…secession. Watch the segment here:
Whitlock was merely saying out loud what many people are concluding; the American experiment is over and the republic we have lived under for 246 years no longer exists.
People are voting with their feet. Out-migration in Democrat-run cities and states has become a tsunami. California lost so many residents to other states that they also lost a seat in Congress. New York is losing to Florida and Texas. Illinois is losing residents to next-door Indiana. Taxes, out-of-control crime, and repressive policies all are driving citizens to seek freedom elsewhere. This voluntary sort is increasing year over year, but for those who can’t or won’t change their residences, the other solution is to align their counties with nearby states that more closely share their values and political leanings.
If you require further proof that the Great Sort has begun, look no further than eastern Oregon. In May 2023 Wallowa County, which borders Idaho, may vote to join eleven other counties in the Greater Idaho Movement and push to become part of their eastern neighbor (see below). The Idaho House of Representatives in February 2023 passed a bill in favor of the movement and a Greater Idaho bill was introduced into the Oregon Senate early this year.
Skeptics point out this movement is unlikely to succeed, since it requires the approval of both the Oregon and Idaho legislatures. While Idaho is likely to approve it, Oregon almost certainly will not, since it would result in two more Republicans in Congress.
But, what if the counties are accepted by Idaho without Oregon’s approval? The short answer is there’s nothing Oregon can do to stop it if they declare for Idaho. Idaho can allow residents of the defecting counties to license their cars in the state, accept state tax filings, and exchange Oregon driver’s licenses for Idaho’s. In short, a fait accompli about which Oregon can do nothing. There is no way for Oregon to force the recalcitrant counties back into the fold and while Congress may object and pontificate, there is little the federal government can do to stop it. If Donald Trump wins the White House in 2024, the Oregon counties should make their move. Trump is unlikely to intervene, nor will Congress if the Republicans take a majority in either house.
Once the Great Sort begins, it will easier for other counties to realign themselves with neighboring states more in line with their beliefs. Northern Colorado counties have expressed an interest in joining Wyoming. Like their neighbors to the south, eastern Washington counties have also indicated a desire to join Idaho or form their own state.
Northern California counties have petitions circulating to either join Idaho or form a new state called Jefferson. In 2013, supervisors in Siskiyou County voted 4–1 for a declaration of secession. A New York Times article in 2021 noted that:
Roughly 1.7 million of California’s 22.1 million registered voters signed the petition to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom. Many of those who signed it technically live in California but symbolically live in another state entirely.
California’s rural far north, sometimes styling itself as the “State of Jefferson,” has long viewed itself as a land apart. Its dozen or so counties, mostly north and east of Sacramento, voted for President Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020.
It’s not just the northern California counties looking to break away. Other proposals would separate northern counties and the eastern half of California as a separate state, as seen in the illustration above, though this is being proposed as an autonomous “buffer state” for Native Americans.
Secession movements are not confined to the western US. Twenty-seven counties in Illinois fed up with diktats from Springfield and the outsized influence of corrupt Chicago have passed referendums to explore secession.
Doubtless, there is support for separatist movements in additional pockets within the US that are currently nascent but could quickly reawaken once the Great Sort begins and the larger movements start to show success in achieving their goals. Nor are separatist movements necessarily confined to red states. Once it begins, there’s no way of knowing where it ends, but one possible result of the Great Sort is a new country, with outlying pockets of leftists in the northeast and on the west coast.
As long as the sort is on a county-by-county basis, achieving the realignment without violence may be possible. The messy parts are whether the military intervenes, which guarantees civil war; who controls the nuclear weapons which reside in mostly red counties; dealing with Democrat-controlled blue cities embedded within red states; setting up a central bank and accompanying financial systems; where the capitol will be located; and who rules. If a new country is formed with the same corrupt politicians in power, it will all be for naught.
To say that all of this will present challenges would be an understatement. The more resistance from the federal government, the more likely it is that a full-fledged civil war ensues. Reorganizing the boundaries within the US is difficult, but not impossible. The question becomes whether the people are allowed to sort it out peacefully according to their wishes, or through force of arms. If the movements can be confined to counties realigning with regions more in tune with their values, we may yet preserve the Union, albeit with a drastically redrawn map.