In Congress, Free States of America, (Date)

The unanimous Declaration of the united Free States of America

When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed.

But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.

Such has been the patient sufferance of these States; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present President of the United States is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

• He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.

• He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.

• He has weaponized the Department of Justice and the Federal Bureau of Investigation to intimidate or imprison those who insist on their God-given Constitutional right to pursue redress from an overbearing and corrupt government.

• He has permitted and promoted the sexualization of children, subjecting them to devastating surgeries, exposing them to pornography, and permitting their indoctrination into sexual perversion using government schools, while dismissing the concerns of parents.

• He has caused the invasion of the country by millions of illegal aliens without penalties, providing them succor at the expense of the citizens and subjecting citizens to death by crime, drugs, and assault on their persons and properties.

• He has refused to allow the states the means to protect their integrity from outside invasion.

• He has refused to uphold and prosecute the laws of the United States in defiance of his Oath of Office.

• He has supported and promoted the deaths and dismemberments of unborn children in their millions.

• He has assented to and promoted the defunding and dissolution of the means of law enforcement within the states, subjecting the people to death and injuries through attacks on their persons and properties.

• His government has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance. Education, law enforcement, public safety, and individual liberties have been compromised through the efforts of these agencies and minions.

• He has subjected the country's youth to government indoctrination through the establishment of government schools, confiscating the wealth of the citizens to fund same. He has resisted efforts to return the administration of educaton to the several states, to whom it belongs.

• He has affected to render the Military impotent, weak, and subject to the current whims of transgender and woke orthodoxy.

• He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us via the Federal Bureau of Investigation and other agencies.

• He has striven at every turn to violate our right to freedom of speech as guaranteed by the First Amendment of the Constitution. He has conspired with agencies both within and without the government to enforce censorship and stifle the conversations of free persons.

• He has striven at every turn to violate our right to bear arms as guaranteed by the Second Amendment of the Constitution. He has done so not through legitimate legislation via Congress, but through executive order and legislative fiat through unelected bureaucrats.

• He has, through his agencies and minions, caused our government schools to fail to teach students the necessary knowledge and skills for successful participation in our nation's opportunities.

• He has, through his agencies and minions, caused or attempted to cause his political opponents to be prosecuted and imprisoned to restrain them in their various candidacies and to cause the people to forfeit their right to choose their government in accordance with their beliefs and desires.

• He has incited domestic insurrections amongst us, allowing his followers to pillage and burn our cities, assault and kill law enforcement officers and agents, and assault citizens in their persons and properties, and allowed them to do so without prosecution or penalties.

In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A President whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our American brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.

We, therefore, the Representatives of the Free States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these states, solemnly publish and declare, That these Free States are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the federal government, and that all political connection between them and the United States of America, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.

s/Free States of America as enumerated below.

At the time of the article, the Biden administration had drawn down the reserve in an effort to lower skyrocketing gasoline prices, caused by Biden’s own economic policies, in the lead-up to the 2022 mid-term elections. It was a blatant attempt to buy votes.

At that time, the SPR declined from a peak of 726 million barrels in 2009 down to 371 million barrels by the end of January 2023. Since then, the SPR has declined further to 351 million barrels, its lowest level in 40 years.

Promises to begin refilling the SPR have come to naught. The government has published several bids for purchase, only to reject them all when the bid price came in too high. That’s what happens when the government’s offer price is below the market value of oil.

Currently, the only buffer for our oil supply is the Middle East, where war is threatening between Israel and Gaza, with the potential for involvement of the entire region if the war spreads. Biden has placed the US in a precarious position with regard to energy security. We have plenty of oil reserves here in the US, but even if Biden releases them for development it will take months before significant oil reaches the market. Biden’s quest to choke off fossil fuels may end up choking the US economy…to death.

Daniel Yergen, author of The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power, was recently quoted on CNBC saying the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is almost at the point where it’s past the comfort level.

“We’ve used about half of it, so it would be harder to use it. And we’re kind of getting to a level where you don’t want to use it.”

The US is currently consuming around 19,140,000 barrels daily, so the SPR represents an 18-day supply of oil. In fact, though, the number of days is much less. Some of the oil is simply unreachable in the caverns. Some of it has been sold and is committed but still held in the Reserve. None of it has been refined, which must take place before the oil can enter the market, and a small percentage of oil is lost in the refining process.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, however, seems to think we no longer need to refill the Reserve to previous levels. According to them, “An analysis finds that a complete refill of the SPR may be unnecessary depending on policy objectives. Instead, the SPR could be recalibrated at a lower absolute level of inventory for the type of supply disruption it was originally intended to mitigate.” So, nothing to worry about.

The Dallas bank attributes the massive drawdown that began in early 2022 to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with no mention of the soaring prices due to Bidenflation and vote-buying prior to the 2022 mid-term elections. During the Trump administration, domestic oil production soared and the US was essentially energy independent. Much less oil was being imported. The Strategic Oil Reserve is calibrated in how many days of oil imports it can replace, so the Dallas bank assumes that, due to the increase in domestic oil production during the Trump administration, since we are importing less oil we can refill the SPR to a lower level than before. In other words, if you want to make a problem go away, redefine the problem.

Unfortunately, domestic oil production has collapsed thanks to the Biden administration and prices have soared to a point where the federal government cannot afford to refill the reserve, a task that would require billions of dollars. The government is looking to purchase oil in the $60- to $70-dollar range. Oil is currently selling for $87.20 a barrel as of this writing. It’s not hard to fathom what happens when the government submits an offer to purchase oil at $65 a barrel.

“Appreciate the offer, but no.”

A net exporter of crude oil in 2019, the US was expected to be a net importer in 2022. It was pretty much a wash that year, but the US achieved net importer status this year. That’s a big comedown from the halcyon years of the Trump administration when US energy independence was the future.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, one-third of federal employees work remotely and 60 percent are working a hybrid schedule, showing up at the office one or two days a week and working the rest of the time remotely.

To add to the insanity, the federal government spent $3.3 billion dollars on office furniture since the beginning of the pandemic, according to watchdog OpenTheBooks.com. A 2023 Government Accounting Office (GSA) report found that 17 out of 24 agencies were using 25 percent or less of their available office space and none of them were using more than 49%.

In addition, none of the agencies the GAO surveyed have returned to pre-Covid staffing levels. According to the Federal News Network, the Government Services Administration (GSA), which manages government buildings, complains there is not enough money to repair or maintain government properties to even prep them for possible sale. This deferred maintenance means missed opportunities to consolidate office space, reduce maintenance and fees, and reduce traffic.

This situation is rife throughout the government’s 24 agencies, but there is a solution…disperse the agencies throughout the United States. This would relocate employees to areas outside of the Washington bubble, with cheaper office space and lower costs of housing, and force them to actually live and work among the people they supposedly “serve.”

Some possible scenarios:

• Department of Defense to Omaha

• Federal Reserve to Kansas City

• Department of Agriculture to Iowa

• Department of Interior to Colorado

The possibilities are endless.

Imagine the culture shock when the denizens of the Deep State find themselves posted to flyover country surrounded by the deplorables they loathe, forced to eat in Billy Bob’s Diner rather than a swank restaurant in Georgetown, surrounded by square miles of corn, and their pay reduced commensurate with the cost of living in their new surrounds. Many of them might choose to leave federal service, reducing staffing with its concomitant savings, and weakening the power of government unions that are a major source of inefficiencies.

In the age of Zoom conferences and remote work, there’s no reason not to take advantage of the efficiencies offered by non-office-based employees, reduce traffic congestion for the residents of Washington, DC, and save money for the taxpayers.

I know, that’s something the government is loathe to do but we can dream.

The contrast couldn’t be more stark.

Each weekday morning my niece gets up at dawn and begins remotely teaching Chinese children ages five and up English as a second language. Many of the older students are seriously fluent in English before she gets them and are already sweating getting admitted to the best universities, a determinant of their lot in life in a rigid communist society.

The Chinese Communist Party is deadly serious about indoctrinating and training their youth in the sciences, languages, and CCP dogma. These children will make up the cadres charged with administering Chinese law to we conquered Americans in the future the CCP visualizes.

Contrast that with American schoolchildren. Just this week came a report that 2023 student scores on the ACT college admissions test were the lowest in 32 years. Some of this is a result of the criminally negligent Covid lockdowns perpetrated by the government with the full support of the teachers’ unions. Some of it is the result of incompetent teachers and disengaged parents who don’t care as long as little Johnny stays out of their way.

In Baltimore, it was recently revealed that not one student in 23 schools was proficient in math at their grade level. Two thousand students in 150 Baltimore schools were tested. Another 20 schools had no more than two students proficient in math. Seven percent of third through eighth graders at Baltimore City Schools met grade-level math expectations in 2022. Per-student spending in Baltimore schools exceeds $20,000 per student.

While Baltimore may be an outlier, it isn’t much of one. Learning loss nationwide has been accelerating, thanks largely to covid lockdown policies. The damage these lockdowns did to children is staggering and you can bet no one will be held accountable.

Schools are churning out kids who can’t read, can’t solve simple math problems, and can’t find their own houses on a map if their lives depended on it. While in China much of TikTok is dedicated to educational subjects, in America kids mug in front of their iPhones and generally act like idiots. On a quiet night you can almost hear the CCP laughing. Pundits have labeled Millenials and Gen Z our dumbest generations. Wait’ll they get a load of this one in a few years.

How this can be fixed is the question. One solution is to crush the teachers’ unions and get them out of our schools. Their priorities are money, electing Democrats to get money, spending money to elect more Democrats, and getting more money. Somewhere near the bottom are the students.

Incompetent teachers must be fired, which will be the next step after crushing the unions. Perhaps one solution is that used by charter schools, where people who are not graduates of teaching, but with plenty of practical life experience, are given opportunities to teach.

Charter schools must be expanded. Most of them produce better results than government schools and those that do not will close, unlike zombie public schools that go on for years, ruining generation after generation of children.

Universal school choice is gaining ground, particularly in red states. School choice introduces competition, which the teachers’ unions absolutely hate. Allowing parents to take their school tax monies to the school of their choice is a warning to government schools to shape up or else.

Any way you slice it, America’s young people are in trouble and the country will pay the price in a few years when these kids become adults and enter a technological economy they are unprepared for and can’t comprehend. Add to that the dumbing down of our military, half our submarine fleet unable to put to sea, Democrats proposing more cuts to defense to buy votes with welfare, not enough ships, planes, sailors, or pilots, and the CCP must be licking its chops. With the current state of our government officials, particularly the drooling meat puppet-in-chief, it’s just a matter of time before the Russians and Chinese decide the time is ripe to strike.

When that happens, my niece may get to meet some of her students in person

It’s subtle but you can feel it if you pay attention.

For too long, conservative Americans have allowed the left to hijack their institutions, the public dialogue, the rule-making. It’s changing though and people are starting to sense it.

In large measure, it began a few years ago with the ascent of independent media. The press for years has been almost wholly an arm of the Democratic National Committee. Outlets like Substack, however, have recently garnered the lion’s share of newly independent writers, many of whom had left corporate media when they tired of being forced to preach narratives they no longer believed in. Elon Musk’s acquisition of Twitter upended the left when government suppression of conservative views, long denied by Democrats, was revealed to be more than a right-wing conspiracy theory. Matt Taibi’s revelations in the so-called Twitter Files proved that the federal government was circumventing the Constitution by coercing private companies like Facebook and Twitter to censor on its behalf views it disagreed with but couldn’t legally censor itself. Even left-of-center websites like The Free Press are becoming more open to conservative viewpoints, much to its credit.

Ever since George Floyd was elevated to martyrdom by the Minneapolis Police Department the Democrat administrations of our major cities have retreated from enforcing laws, allowing criminals to run rampant in the streets, degrading the quality of life for millions. Now, entire areas of major cities lack grocery stores as major retailers pack up and leave due to massive theft. Retailers say it has become dangerous to their employees and some go so far as to prohibit them from interfering with thefts taking place in plain sight. The result is “food deserts” in many cities where there are no grocery or other retail stores to serve the, usually lower-income, residents. The situation is so bad that Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson has proposed a municipal grocery run by the government. Socialism, anyone?

We’re told that young children can be butchered because a boy or girl is “gender confused” and fantasizes about being the opposite sex and parents should have no say. Boys are now allowed to participate in women’s sports, destroying young girls’ chances at achievement. Girls have been raped in their bathrooms by males pretending to be female and we’re just supposed to accept it without complaint. A Virginia father who complained at a school board meeting when his daughter was raped and the boy went unpunished was arrested and subsequently pardoned by Governor Youngkin. Public schools have become government indoctrination centers, dominated by left-wing teachers’ unions concerned only with what they can extract from Democrat administrations that they helped put into office. Kids are taught that there are 58 genders and if you disagree you’re a racist and a bigot.

This blew up in the schools’ faces when the Covid pandemic hit. Schools went to remote learning and suddenly parents were able to see what their kids were actually being taught and they didn’t like it. Critical race theory taught that white children were privileged oppressors. Black students were told they were victims of systemic racism, incapable of pulling themselves up without the help of liberal white people. Conservatives reacted by running for positions on school boards and suddenly the leftists no longer had free rein to treat the schools as their private fiefdoms.

The collapse of government-run schools led to an explosion in homeschooling, which began during the Covid lockdowns and continued after schools reopened when parents decided they didn’t want their children further exposed to concepts anathema to their beliefs. Already in 2023, ten states have enacted universal school choice, allowing parents who wish for their children to escape failing government schools to use their school tax money to attend a private or charter school. These schools are booming with long waiting lists, their expansion held back only by resistance from teachers’ unions and their compliant lackeys in the state legislatures.

Suddenly, we are inundated with men identifying as women, men dominating women’s sports. As one wag quipped, it turns out men make better women than women do. Every purple-haired freak with a bone in their nose and tattoos, every “trans” woman with a mustache is supposed to be accepted unquestioningly or you are called a racist and a bigot. Racist and bigot seem to be the only weapons leftists have and they’re so overused as to have been rendered meaningless. The pushback was ferocious, however. Ask Anheuser Busch, whose marketing agreement with Dylan Mulvaney backfired spectacularly; or Target, whose decision to make trans-themed clothing front and center in their stores provoked a similar backlash.

What the leftists are starting to realize is there’s a limit to how far you can push people before they shoot back. As red states retaliate against woke ideology, the left circles its wagons and doubles down on its oppressive policies. Conservative counties in blue states are beginning to seriously explore the possibility of seceding and joining their more conservative neighbors. The process is well underway in eastern Oregon and nascent movements are stirring in eastern Washington and northern California. Once one of these movements succeeds, expect more counties to follow suit. There’s no predicting where it might end. People opposed to peaceful county realignments might find themselves faced with outright secession or civil war.

As bad as all this is, perhaps the most discouraging is the almost total collapse of public trust in our institutions. Most people still like and trust their personal doctors, but disbelieve almost anything that comes out of the medical establishment. Americans have learned that scientific research dependent on government funding cannot be trusted. Results are fabricated less to advance The Science™ than to ensure continued access to the government teat.

This year, almost half of Americans from all walks of life have said they will not get the just-released COVID-19 vaccine for Fall 2023. They’ve learned the vaccine was approved on an expedited basis by skipping or limiting the standard human trials common to most medicine approvals, as was true of the original vaccines. Adding insult to injury, the left is attempting to once again enforce mask mandates despite clear evidence they do not work. If the government shuts down schools again, expect parents to rise up in full, open revolt.

Finally, the border crisis and out-of-control illegal immigration are making themselves felt in unexpected places, like New York, Chicago, and Denver. Texas Governor Fred Abbott’s brilliant policy of bussing thousands of immigrants to sanctuary cities has taught their citizens that virtue signaling comes with a price. It is easy to be sanctimonious when it doesn’t cost you anything, but when thousands of illegals show up on your doorstep and you have to provide medical care and housing from public funds it’s harder to maintain the benevolent facade.

Where all of this ultimately leads will probably be apparent first in the results of the 2024 presidential election. It’s possible that Donald Trump will blow Joe Biden out of the water, but there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical. First, one or more of the dozens of indictments and criminal charges against Trump may stick. Several states are attempting through dubious legal means to keep Trump off of the ballot. Any of these could trigger a furious and possibly violent reaction up to and including civil war.

Second, Joe Biden could win re-election and continue another four years of his disastrous policies (assuming he retains what is left of his faculties and lives to complete his term), further depressing the economy into recession with massive layoffs leading to unrest. This might be counterbalanced if the Republicans can secure a larger majority in the House and/or take control of the Senate and stymie the Democrat’s more extreme tendencies.

Two years of runaway inflation and financial pressure crushing middle and lower-class families have opened a lot of eyes. People may despise Trump, but many long for the good economy they enjoyed during the Trump years pre-Covid. If Biden wins in 2014 and, God forbid, another Democrat succeeds him for another four or eight years, the United States as we know it will probably be unrecognizable or cease to exist.

There is hope, however. The fact that people are finally alerted to the events around them raises the possibility that they may step in and take action. Many red state governors and legislatures are passing laws to limit the damage to their children and their economy. Republicans are promising to close the border if they win elections next year and Democrat-run cities can look forward to their immigrant burdens continuing. The myriad problems facing this country, from within and without will not be solved overnight, but they must be resolved if we are to continue as a nation.

Whitlock was merely saying out loud what many people are concluding; the American experiment is over and the republic we have lived under for 246 years no longer exists.

People are voting with their feet. Out-migration in Democrat-run cities and states has become a tsunami. California lost so many residents to other states that they also lost a seat in Congress. New York is losing to Florida and Texas. Illinois is losing residents to next-door Indiana. Taxes, out-of-control crime, and repressive policies all are driving citizens to seek freedom elsewhere. This voluntary sort is increasing year over year, but for those who can’t or won’t change their residences, the other solution is to align their counties with nearby states that more closely share their values and political leanings.

If you require further proof that the Great Sort has begun, look no further than eastern Oregon. In May 2023 Wallowa County, which borders Idaho, may vote to join eleven other counties in the Greater Idaho Movement and push to become part of their eastern neighbor (see below). The Idaho House of Representatives in February 2023 passed a bill in favor of the movement and a Greater Idaho bill was introduced into the Oregon Senate early this year.

Skeptics point out this movement is unlikely to succeed, since it requires the approval of both the Oregon and Idaho legislatures. While Idaho is likely to approve it, Oregon almost certainly will not, since it would result in two more Republicans in Congress.

But, what if the counties are accepted by Idaho without Oregon’s approval? The short answer is there’s nothing Oregon can do to stop it if they declare for Idaho. Idaho can allow residents of the defecting counties to license their cars in the state, accept state tax filings, and exchange Oregon driver’s licenses for Idaho’s. In short, a fait accompli about which Oregon can do nothing. There is no way for Oregon to force the recalcitrant counties back into the fold and while Congress may object and pontificate, there is little the federal government can do to stop it. If Donald Trump wins the White House in 2024, the Oregon counties should make their move. Trump is unlikely to intervene, nor will Congress if the Republicans take a majority in either house.

Once the Great Sort begins, it will easier for other counties to realign themselves with neighboring states more in line with their beliefs. Northern Colorado counties have expressed an interest in joining Wyoming. Like their neighbors to the south, eastern Washington counties have also indicated a desire to join Idaho or form their own state.

Northern California counties have petitions circulating to either join Idaho or form a new state called Jefferson. In 2013, supervisors in Siskiyou County voted 4–1 for a declaration of secession. A New York Times article in 2021 noted that:

Roughly 1.7 million of California’s 22.1 million registered voters signed the petition to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom. Many of those who signed it technically live in California but symbolically live in another state entirely.

California’s rural far north, sometimes styling itself as the “State of Jefferson,” has long viewed itself as a land apart. Its dozen or so counties, mostly north and east of Sacramento, voted for President Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020.

It’s not just the northern California counties looking to break away. Other proposals would separate northern counties and the eastern half of California as a separate state, as seen in the illustration above, though this is being proposed as an autonomous “buffer state” for Native Americans.

Secession movements are not confined to the western US. Twenty-seven counties in Illinois fed up with diktats from Springfield and the outsized influence of corrupt Chicago have passed referendums to explore secession.

Doubtless, there is support for separatist movements in additional pockets within the US that are currently nascent but could quickly reawaken once the Great Sort begins and the larger movements start to show success in achieving their goals. Nor are separatist movements necessarily confined to red states. Once it begins, there’s no way of knowing where it ends, but one possible result of the Great Sort is a new country, with outlying pockets of leftists in the northeast and on the west coast.

As long as the sort is on a county-by-county basis, achieving the realignment without violence may be possible. The messy parts are whether the military intervenes, which guarantees civil war; who controls the nuclear weapons which reside in mostly red counties; dealing with Democrat-controlled blue cities embedded within red states; setting up a central bank and accompanying financial systems; where the capitol will be located; and who rules. If a new country is formed with the same corrupt politicians in power, it will all be for naught.

To say that all of this will present challenges would be an understatement. The more resistance from the federal government, the more likely it is that a full-fledged civil war ensues. Reorganizing the boundaries within the US is difficult, but not impossible. The question becomes whether the people are allowed to sort it out peacefully according to their wishes, or through force of arms. If the movements can be confined to counties realigning with regions more in tune with their values, we may yet preserve the Union, albeit with a drastically redrawn map.

Take the Chinese spy balloon (please!). Reports now say the government was tracking it from the moment of its launch from Hainan Island off the southern coast of China nearly a week before it arrived in US airspace. The American public would not have been told of the balloon’s presence had it not been for some eagle-eyed observers in Montana who spotted it hovering over or near military installations in that state. The balloon then proceeded southeast and exited off the coast of South Carolina on February 4th, when it was shot down. Since then, the US Navy has been involved in recovery operations and has reportedly recovered a significant amount of debris. Recovery efforts are ongoing. Who doubts that the debris will disappear into a hangar on a military base, never to be seen again?

The same goes for three other objects shot down over the US in the last week. One was picked up over Montana as a radar anomaly, evaded detection by aircraft, only to reappear above Michigan and be shot down over Lake Huron. Another entered Canadian airspace and was shot down by US fighter jets by NORAD at Canada’s request. A third was shot down over northern Alaska. Biden administration officials say they don’t know what the three objects were, but they were “benign,” a contradictory statement. How can they assess the threat as benign if they don’t know what it is? But, no matter. Perhaps someone should ask the National Weather Service if any of its weather balloons went offline prematurely. Only the incompetent US government would use a $400,000 Sidewinder missile to pop a balloon—two missiles in one instance where the first one missed.

Now, on to Ohio where a Norfolk Southern train loaded with toxic chemicals derailed in East Palestine. Once again demonstrating its wisdom and competence, the federal government decided to blow the train up in what it called a controlled release, resulting in an enormous fireball and a giant mushroom cloud of burning chemicals. People were forced to evacuate the town. Residents suffered burning eyes and skin irritation as chickens, domestic foxes, and farm animals died, some many miles from the accident site. Fish were dying in nearby streams, but the government was telling residents the water was safe to drink. In the meantime, Pete Buttigieg, our erstwhile Secretary of Transportation, was holed up in a bunker complaining that there are too many white people in construction jobs. A community meeting in East Palestine this week erupted in anger when Buttigieg failed to appear to answer questions, nor did anyone from Norfolk Southern railroad which cited threats to employees’ security. Meanwhile, no one from the Federal Emergency Management Agency has put in an appearance, proclaiming that East Palestine is not eligible for emergency assistance, and the accident has barely been remarked on by news media other than conservative outlets. Welcome to flyover country, the land of deplorables. Move on, nothing to see here.

In Baltimore this week, it was revealed that in 23 schools not one single student is proficient at his or her grade level…not one! The administration’s solution? More money for teachers. How about demanding results before awarding raises? Everyone knows, however, that the Democrat party is owned lock, stock, and barrel by the teachers’ unions.

This week, Senator Diane Feinstein’s staff issued a statement that the Senator would not run for re-election at the end of her current term. When asked about it yesterday, Senator Feinstein, the oldest person in Congress, was unaware of the statement. A nearby staffer told her the statement had been released. You’d be forgiven for concluding her staff is trying to force her out amid reports of her mental confusion and difficulty with everyday affairs. The gerontocracy is on full display.

These are just events during the past two weeks. Add in the Southwest Airlines meltdown during the Christmas travel season, the air travel shutdown due to a glitch in the FAA’s Notices to Airmen system. America is circling the toilet and no one sees a solution on the horizon. Nikki Haley is competent but didn’t articulate why she should be president during her announcement. A second Trump administration might make his supporters feel good as they shove him down the Left’s throats again, but things would likely devolve into a four-year revenge tour. Ron DeSantis is competent, qualified, and has an attitude toward wokeness and government that appeals to a large bloc of voters, but his candidacy is still firmly lodged in the “maybe” category.

May you live in interesting times, goes the Chinese curse.

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is supposed to function as America’s ace in the hole in the event of a major structural or geopolitical disruption of the nation’s oil supply. In early 2021, the Biden administration began to radically withdraw oil, 180 million barrels, from the reserve for purely political reasons — to increase supply in the hope it would lower inflation-driven energy prices in time for the crucial mid-term Congressional elections in November 2022. The unprecedented drawdown worked out to 1 million barrels per day for six months (Figure 1). The ploy worked…to a degree…but Americans are seeing gasoline prices approaching five dollars a gallon again in February 2023. At the same time, the SPR has been depleted to the point where it is no longer a viable option for reducing gasoline prices. The levels in the reserve are simply too low to risk further drawdowns. The U.S. could find itself between a rock and a hard place in the event of a major supply disruption.

The Petroleum Reserve is Dangerously Low

The U.S. began filling the reserve in 1977 and it reached its maximum level of 726 million barrels in December 2009. Thereafter, the reserves declined slowly in response to mandatory sales, test sales, exchanges, and other factors.

Between October and December 2021 (FY 2022) a mandatory sale of 20 million barrels was initiated (Figure 2). Another mandatory sale of 18 million barrels took place between January and March of 2022. During the period December 2021 through April 2022, a 32-million-barrel competitive exchange took place, with the oil plus the additional “premium” barrels to be repaid by the end of FY2024. All of this is a relatively normal course of business for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.[i]

By early 2021, several massive stimulus packages passed by Congress had begun to fuel inflation, which reached almost 13 percent by Spring. With energy prices skyrocketing and the mid-term elections looming in November 2022 and facing the possibility of a Republican “red wave,” President Biden began releasing oil from the SPR: 30 million barrels between April and May 2022, another 70 million barrels between May and July, and 90 million barrels between August and the end of October at the height of the mid-term campaigns. These drastic drawdowns reduced the crude oil inventory in the SPR to 361 million barrels by the end of December 2022. As of the end of January 2023, the inventory had risen slightly to 371.6 million barrels.

By any measure, these stocks are now at a dangerously low level. Facing criticism for the politically motivated drawdowns, the Biden administration announced a 3-million-barrel purchase that would begin refilling the SPR when the price reached $70 per barrel, to take place in February. As of this writing (Feb 6), the price of West Texas Intermediate crude is $74.49 a barrel; Brent crude is $80.99 per barrel. Every common grade of crude oil is priced above the administration’s offer price.

The first offer for purchase by the federal government was rejected by the Department of Energy as too expensive; sellers refused to sell crude oil at a price the government was willing to pay. Refilling the SPR will not be as easy as expected. Keep in mind, also, that the average price of all the oil in the SPR was $29 per barrel as averaged over the life of the reserve. We bought cheap and now we may be forced to buy high.[ii]

To prevent the White House from using the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as a political plaything, House Republicans in January introduced the Strategic Production Response Act to prevent the president from releasing any oil from the reserve except in the case of a carefully defined severe energy disruption, unless the president at the same time opens more federal lands to oil and gas leasing. Predictably, Democrats have blasted the proposed legislation as “putting wealthy special interests ahead of middle-class families.”[iii]

This, of course, is not the first time politics has stymied maintaining our strategic oil stockpile. In early March 2020, oil prices had plunged to record lows due to lowered demand caused by the pandemic and President Trump proposed purchasing up to 75 million barrels of oil for the SPR at a cost of around $2.5 billion, enough to effectively top off the reserve.[iv]

Senate Democrats were having none of it. Instead of taking advantage of record-low oil prices to ensure our energy security, the Democrats stripped the money from the stimulus bill in late March, calling it a “bailout for the oil industry.”[v]

What is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve?

The SPR was created by the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, signed by President Ford in 1975, in response to the Arab oil embargo of 1973–1974. The idea of an oil reserve had been considered as early as 1944, but the Arab embargo brought America’s vulnerability to energy disruptions to the fore and was the final impetus to force the government to act.

At the same time, the U.S. was one of the founding members of the International Energy Agency (IEA), formed to create a collective response to energy supplies and build reserves to guard against future disruptions. With 31 member countries (and four awaiting membership), the IEA’s mandate is cooperation on “security of supply, long-term policy, information transparency, energy efficiency, sustainability, research and development, technology collaboration, and international energy relations.”(vi) The agency’s emergency response mechanism has been activated four times since its inception.

One of the IEA’s mandates is for member countries to hold in reserve strategic stocks equal to 90 days’ supply, based on the previous year’s net imports. Countries that are net exporters are not required to meet the reserve requirement. The U.S. was a net exporter in 2021 and was thus exempt from the 90-day reserve.

The Structure of the SPR

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve consists of four sites located on the Gulf coast, two in Texas and two in Louisiana, with a total storage capacity of 713.5 million barrels of oil.[vii] The sites consist of a total of 60 caverns within extensive salt domes underground. Plans to expand the SPR’s capacity to one billion barrels were approved but later canceled by the Obama administration in 2011. Although the SPR is authorized to store crude and refined products, it has only historically held crude oil. This is because refined products, such as gasoline, tend to deteriorate rather quickly and are thus unsuited for long-term storage.

The storage caverns are carved within the salt domes by drilling wells through the caprock into the salt and then pumping large amounts of fresh water into the salt to dissolve it. The resulting brine is then pumped into holding tanks or, more commonly, piped several miles offshore and released into the Gulf of Mexico. This technique can create caverns of precise size and uniformity. Each cavern has an average diameter of 200 feet and a height of 2,550 feet, large enough to hold Chicago’s Willis Tower (the former Sears Tower) with room to spare.

Salt caverns have many advantages over above-ground storage. Using above-ground tanks can cost $15–18 per barrel, compared to $3.50 per barrel for underground storage in salt caverns. Salt, if relatively pure, is impervious to liquid or gas and inert to petroleum. Beneath the weight of the overlying and surrounding rock, salt has a compression strength equal to that of concrete. Due to the caverns’ depth, geological pressures keep cracks from forming and those that do are sealed by the salt’s plasticity. Finally, the height of the cavern ensures a temperature difference between the top and bottom, which causes the oil to circulate within the cavern and maintain consistency throughout.

The salt caverns do have a vulnerability, though. To retrieve the oil from the caverns, called a drawdown, water is pumped into the bottom, forcing the oil up and out. Each drawdown leaches an amount of salt from the cavern. Sandia Laboratories, in a 2022 annual report[viii], estimated a total drawdown of an individual cavern, defined as withdrawing 90% of the oil with raw water, would leach an assumed 15% of the salt from the cavern. Full drawdowns are rarely performed, however, which means the leaching from partial drawdowns is confined almost entirely to the bottom portion of the cavern. Axisymetrical caverns are better able to withstand repeated withdrawals than those with irregular shapes.

Distribution and Sales

As mentioned, the SPR consists of four storage sites (Table 1).

Each of the storage sites has access to a marine terminal and pipelines, allowing distribution to half of the refineries in the country as well as facilitating the refilling of the reserve. The maximum rate of withdrawal is 4.4 MMB/D and it takes 13 days for the oil to reach the open market. The effect of a withdrawal announcement is often quickly felt in the markets as the oil’s arrival is anticipated.

Historical Oil Releases

There are several reasons why a sale of crude oil from the SPR might take place. First and foremost, releases have been ordered to meet emergencies caused by supply disruptions. Presidents have ordered releases on four occasions deemed emergencies: 1991 during Operation Desert Storm; 2005 after Hurricane Katrina; an IEA-coordinated release in 2011 due to oil disruptions in Libya; and President Biden’s political “emergency” in 2021–2022. A full or limited drawdown can only be authorized by a sitting president. The Department of Energy can conduct test sales or exchanges.

As mentioned, test sales are occasionally conducted to test equipment, determine that drawdown rates meet specifications, and evaluate sale procedures. Test sales are limited to 5 MMB (million barrels). Test sales were held in 1985, in 1990 during Desert Shield, and in 2014.

The Secretary of Energy is authorized to release oil on loan or exchange with refineries to mitigate short-term disruptions such as a blocked ship channel. These sales are generally Royalty-In-Kind, where the borrower pays back the oil to the SPR plus a smaller additional amount, like interest. Twelve exchanges were initiated between 1996 and 2017, all due to hurricanes or shipping channel blockages. These drawdowns are typically no more than 30 million barrels.

Sales have also been authorized to generate revenue for SPR site maintenance and upgrades, called Life Extension Programs. LEP 1 was initiated in 1993 for $324 million to ensure drawdown capability across all four sites. In 2015 LEP 2 began upgrading equipment at all four sites. Modernization sales took place in 2017, 2018, and 2019.

Congress can also mandate sales to reduce the deficit or raise funds for programs, as was done in 1996–1997. All told, the SPR has released over 230 million barrels of crude oil through 2019 and another 180 million barrels since 2021.

Our immediate future…precarious

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has now been drawn down to its lowest level since September 1983, placing the country on a slippery footing in the event of a major supply disruption. At the maximum withdrawal rate of 4.4 million barrels per day, it would take 85 days for a full withdrawal. From the president’s order to release oil to its entry into the market takes about 13 days. Released at a rate of 1 million barrels per day, the reserve would take just over a year to drain. Americans consumed almost 20 million barrels per day of petroleum products in 2021, so 1 million barrels per day doesn’t go very far.

Refilling the reserve currently is problematic, with the price of crude oil hovering around $75 to $80 per barrel, well above the administration’s target price of $68 to $72 a barrel. Oil purchases in the immediate future are apt to be expensive, even though the Energy Information Administration projects the price of crude oil to decrease during 2023 and 2024 and domestic production to increase. As noted, the February 2023 crude oil purchase was canceled by the government when bid prices came in at a higher-than-expected level.

More disturbing, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is subject to manipulation for political purposes, as was done in 2021–2022. This contradicts the words strategic and reserve in the program’s name. While legislation has been introduced to force the use of the reserve to conform more to its intended emergency purpose it is unlikely to survive the current Congress.

Americans should keep a wary eye on future drawdowns of our crude oil insurance policy and demand that it be used for its intended purpose and not as a plaything to be exploited for political purposes. Our future security depends on it.

[i] Brown, Phillip. “Strategic Petroleum Reserve Oil Releases: October 2021 Through October 2022.” (2022): https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN11916.

[ii] Smith, Yves. “Washington Has Trouble Filling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve After 220 Million Barrel Draw.” (2023): https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/01/washington-has-trouble-refilling-the-strategic-petroleum-reserve-after-220-million-barrel-draw.html.

[iii] Nazaryan, Alexander. “White House Blasts ‘Backwards’ Republican Proposal on Strategic Petroleum Reserve.” (2023): https://news.yahoo.com/white-house-blasts-backwards-republican-proposal-on-strategic-petroleum-reserve-220700865.html.

[iv] Schroeder, Robert. “Trump Seeks to Add 75 Million Barrels of Oil to Strategic Petroleum Reserve Amid Historic Price Crash.” (2020): https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-seeks-to-add-75-million-barrels-of-oil-to-strategic-petroleum-reserve-amid-historic-price-crash-2020-04-20.

[v] Hulac, Benjamin J. “Oil Purchase to Fill Strategic Reserve Dropped from Stimulus.” (2020): https://rollcall.com/2020/03/25/oil-purchase-to-fill-strategic-reserve-dropped-from-stimulus/.

[vi] “History — from Oil Security to Steering the World Toward Secure and Sustainable Energy Transitions.” (2022): https://www.iea.org/about/history.

[vii] Greenley, Heather. “The Strategic Petroleum Reserve: Background, Authorities, and Considerations.” R46355 (2020):

[viii] Hart, David, Zeitler, Todd, and Sobolik, Steven. “2022 Annual Report of Available Drawdowns for Each Oil Storage Cavern in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.” (2022): https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1870557.

“The most erroneous assumption is to the effect that the aim of public education is to fill the young of the species with knowledge and awaken their intelligence, and so make them fit to discharge the duties of citizenship in an enlightened and independent manner. Nothing could be further from the truth. The aim of public education is not to spread enlightenment at all; it is simply to reduce as many individuals as possible to the same safe level, to breed and train a standardized citizenry, to put down dissent and originality. That is its aim in the United States, whatever the pretensions of politicians, pedagogues and other such mountebanks, and that is its aim everywhere else.”

― H.L. Mencken

“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by an endless series of hobgoblins, most of them imaginary.”

― H.L. Mencken, In Defense Of Women

“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want and deserve to get it good and hard.”

― H.L. Mencken, A Little Book In C Major

Regardless of your politics, it’s hard to argue that H. L. Mencken didn’t have his finger on the political pulse of the human race. A newspaperman, anti-capitalist, and a cynical observer of the human condition, Mencken remains one of the funniest commentators 67 years after his death.

The quotations cited above are among his best-known because they remain true and were confirmed to be so by this week’s mid-term elections. Millennials and Generation Z, or whatever generation they’re up to now, to the extent they could be enticed to put down their iPhones and iPads, broke decisively for the Democrats this month. They were one of the deciding factors in the impressive “red tsunami” that never occurred.

According to thehill.com:

Youth also overwhelmingly voted Democrat in the 2022 midterms, with rates almost identical to those seen in 2020. The Edison Research National Election Pool exit poll found 63 percent of young voters opted for Democrats in the House of Representatives race, while 35 percent voted for Republicans.

The United States is amid the highest inflation in forty years. According to pollster TIPP Insights:

True, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the government last Thursday showed a 7.7% year-over-year price increase from October 2021 to October 2022, edging down from a rate of 8.2% in September. The CPI has declined steadily from a 40-year high of 9.1% in June to 7.7% in September.

Intriguingly, no media outlet bothered to inform its readers or viewers that the prices have increased by 13.3% under President Biden's watch between February 2021 and October 2022.

And the Democrats just voted for more of it.

They also voted for open borders admitting an unceasing flood of undocumented Democrats; rampant crime (appropriately enough, in Democrat-run cities but, hey, they voted for it); and infanticide up to the moment of birth and beyond.

Now that Millennials (born between 1981 and 1996) and Gen Zs (born between 1987 and 2000) are of voting age, their impact is being felt at the polls. Most of them have been blessed with the finest education in our best universities. Steeped in Marxist ideology taught by aging hippies marinated in the protest movements of the 1960s, they’ve been taught that America is irredeemably racist and unfair and must be torn down and rebuilt. Socialism will be their salvation.

Gen Z pioneered the art of “quiet quitting;” show up for work, spend the day rearranging the pencils on your desk, then go home to do the real work of killing zombies in Call of Duty. Nice work if you can get it…and keep it. Unfortunately, they’re learning that their boomer bosses are not so stupid as they presume and quiet quitters are finding themselves at the tops of layoff lists.

They’ve learned that the fruits of others’ labors, born of success most of them will never experience, can be confiscated by the power of government and redistributed…to themselves. President Obama epitomized this attitude with his “you didn’t build that” statement. You didn’t build your company, so we’re justified in seizing it.

President Biden was successful in bribing the youth vote with his promise to forgive student loans. They found out what that was worth after a judge struck down the loan relief program as “blatantly unconstitutional” shortly after the election. Pay those loans back, suckers.

Youth support can also be explained, again as a product of the American education cabal, by their increasing embrace of socialism and a corresponding disdain for capitalism, i.e. exploitation of the masses.

Democrats have moved farther to the left and become almost indistinguishable from the Democratic Socialist Party epitomized by Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and the so-called Squad.

The challenge for the Republicans is to get their act together, put forth good, solid candidates, and explain to voters why capitalism is superior to socialism. Most Republicans just want to be left alone, but pulling into their shells and hoping they won’t be noticed by the increasingly socialist left is not going to work.

Either the Right gets its act together or it should begin preparing for the Great Secession. It may be the only escape.

There are several takeaways from last night’s Republican drubbing in the mid-term elections. I call it a drubbing because the Republican tsunami turned into a ripple as the party overall underperformed expectations. Several important factors were in play last night:

- Trump, the elephant in the china shop;

- the Libertarian Party as spoiler (see Georgia);

- the United States is more divided and has moved farther left than many realize;

- Polls are worthless;

- Candidate quality matters.

The Trump Factor

Three days before the election, this narcissistic sap took a potshot at the Republican’s most successful politician, referring to him as Ron DeSanctimonius. This childish name-calling rebounded on Trump when he was trashed with well-deserved criticism from his party. DeSantis is well-liked in the Republican party and especially with his constituents in Florida. Trump recovered somewhat by endorsing DeSantis during a rally the next day and making it clear to reporters on Tuesday that he had voted for the Florida governor. No one expects the comity to last. This is a preview of the 2024 election campaign and what voters can expect from this aging man-child.

Republicans also shouldn’t overlook the fact that Raphael Warnock of Georgia might not be a factor in this election had Trump in 2020 not told the state’s Republican voters not to bother voting in the runoff election because the voting was rigged. The resulting low turnout on the right allowed Warnock to gain the seat.

The icing on the cake? Trump issued a statement celebrating the defeat of Republican Joe O’Dea in Colorado. WTF?

Seventy percent of Trump-endorsed candidates won their races, with notable high-profile exceptions like Mehmet Oz, who lost to John Fetterman in Pennsylvania; and Don Bolduc, who was defeated by New Hampshire incumbent Maggie Hassan. Trump still enjoys considerable influence within the Republican party and is widely anticipated to announce his candidacy for President next week. Voters, however, are wary and exhausted by the juvenile name-calling. Trump may find it’s not nearly as clever or effective as it was in 2016.

The third-party impact in Georgia

Third-party candidates rarely poll above two or three percent in elections, but that can draw enough voters to tip the scale between Republican and Democratic candidates in extremely tight races. Georgia is a classic case this year.

As of this morning (November 9th), Senate incumbent Raphael Warnock holds a narrow lead (49.42%) over Republican candidate Herschel Walker (48.52%). If neither candidate gets 50% of the vote, it goes to a runoff election on December 6th.

Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver drew 2.07% of the vote, or 80,955 ballots, more than enough to give either Warnock or Walker the push needed to win and avoid a runoff. As in 2020, we again may not know who controls Congress until the runoff election. Libertarians are free to run their candidates, of course, but for Democrats and Republicans, the third-party effect on election outcomes cannot be discounted.

Polls—Why do we pay these people?

As the mid-term elections neared, polls increasingly predicted the Republican wave was turning into a tsunami that would sweep the Democrats away and usher in overwhelming Republican majorities in both the House and Senate. Many of the polls were commissioned by partisan groups on both sides, so it’s no surprise some of them delivered the results their clients desired.

It was generally assumed that Biden’s low approval numbers would be reflected in the election results, but Democrats outperformed expectations despite Biden. Political analyst Steve Hilton on Fox News predicted the better-than-expected performance may give Biden more power to resist calls for him to step aside in 2024.

The pollsters’ poor performance may be a result of urban bias, conducting more polling in cities where Democrats generally dominate and undercounting rural Republicans. People may also be reluctant to talk to pollsters, lying about their true leanings toward candidates and issues such as gun control or immigration.

Polls most recently performed poorly in 2016 and 2020 and their streak continued in 2022. Whatever they’re paying those people, it’s too much.

Candidate quality matters

Both parties are guilty of fielding candidates of dubious quality. On the Republican side, Marjory Taylor Greene stands out, a Trump acolyte and election denier steeped in conspiracy theories who nevertheless won reelection yesterday. Mehmet Oz, running against Democrat John Fetterman, a stroke victim suffering from aphasia resulting in a speech impediment, failed nonetheless to win what should have been an easy seat. Lauren Boebert in Colorado’s third district, a normally safe Republican haven, suffered an unexpectedly strong challenge from Democrat Adam Frisch, who looks likely to prevail.

Some chaff will inevitably be found among the wheat, but both parties, especially the Republicans, need to field serious, quality candidates. The country is crying out for leadership.

America is trending more socialist…and more divided than ever

The nearly even results of the 2022 mid-terms served to emphasize the current state of the American experiment, a country deeply and evenly divided between two factions with irreconcilable differences.

Three more counties in eastern Oregon voted on November 8th to join the Greater Idaho movement to secede and join Idaho. This makes 11 of 13 eastern counties that have approved the measure.

Similar secession movements are awakening in northern Colorado, eastern Washington state, and western Virginia. While most pundits poo-poo the idea of an American divorce, more people than ever are beginning to acknowledge that the divisions are overwhelming and real. The vision for America held by the Democrats—autocratic control, censorship, conformity, control of the means of production—contrasts sharply with Republicans’ desire for traditional values, small government, liberty, and self-sufficiency. Secession movements are beginning to pop up on the radar and may someday reach a critical mass that cannot be ignored.

Where do we go from here?

Regardless of whether the Republicans ultimately win control of the Senate, along with the House, their slim margins will limit their ability to accomplish very much legislatively. Internal divisions, fomented and encouraged by Donald Trump will reduce the right’s effectiveness.

Between now and the 2024 Presidential election, it appears the status quo will mostly hold, with small Republican majorities able to largely stymie Biden’s agenda and ensure stalemate continues. That’s not necessarily bad; our wallets and liberties are never safer than with an evenly divided government.

The Republicans have received a message from voters if they choose to see it. That message is the Florida results in general, and Governor Ron DeSantis in particular. DeSantis, like Trump, knows how to punch back, but without the rancor and childish insults employed by the former President. DeSantis has proven to be a leader who can accomplish things despite sometimes overwhelming odds. Trump is no longer the shoo-in for re-election in 2024 that some Republicans seem to think. The 2024 Presidential election is theirs to lose and Trump is how they may do it.

This from Kevin McCarthy: “I’M FURIOUS. WE'RE ABOUT TO LOSE. AGAIN.

TONIGHT is the FINAL QUARTERLY DEADLINE before Election Day- if we miss our goal- PELOSI WINS. AGAIN.”

Another message from an unidentified Trump operative: “WE LOST IN 2018.

WE FAILED IN 2020.

And at the current rate - WE'RE GOING TO FAIL AGAIN!”

All of this is part and parcel of election campaigns, but with this level of upbeat messaging, is it no surprise that some Republicans may decide to stay home? After all, why waste time voting for losers?

Perhaps Republican fortunes would change if they come out with some policy prescriptions better than the vague bullet points released a few weeks ago by Kevin McCarthy in his current version of a “contract with America.”

Instead of vague concepts, perhaps Republicans should spell out some specific policies and legislation they’d enact if they take control of the House and Senate.

For that, I’d send them $15.

Biden, again to no one's surprise, has been alternately defiant and confused. While his State Department and White House spokesmen have insisted sanctions were a deterrent, it became blindingly clear that they were not and on Friday the 25th of February and the second day of the invasion, the Biden Administration conceded they were not. Then Biden flew off to Delaware for an ice cream cone…or something.

Biden's sanctions amounted to little more than punishing a few Putin cronies and a couple of banks that do business with the west. The most effective sanction, and potentially the most lethal to the Russian economy, would be to eject Russia from SWIFT, the international banking transaction system that allows payment processing between member nations. Remove Russia and their ability to get paid for oil and gas exports, or to pay for imports, is severely crippled. Well, it took a few days, but the US and the Europeans finally screwed up their courage and removed several prominent Russian banks from the SWIFT system making sure, of course, to leave just enough prominent Russian banks in SWIFT to ensure Europe could continue to buy Russian oil.

Germany Steps Up

Perhaps the biggest surprise was the turn-around in Germany's attitude when the new Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, suddenly did an about-face and declared that Germany would increase its defense spending—finally—to the two percent of GDP required of NATO members, something it ha refused to do while huddling under the US's nuclear umbrella. Additionally, Scholz announced that Germany would provide Stinger missiles and anti-tank weaponry to Ukraine.

Germany has been in the unenviable position of being trapped between the West and Russia and it has for years tried to be a mediator between the two. It invested in the Nord 2 pipeline even as everyone foresaw that dependency on Russian gas would sooner or later prove problematic. Nevertheless, Germany has seen the light—for now—and is moving in the right direction.

Other European countries have promised limited support for Ukraine, but the big question is whether they have the fortitude to stick it out if the war drags on. If Russia ceases shipments of gas to Europe and energy prices soar even more than they already have, the smart money is betting the Europeans cave.

The other 800-pound gorilla in the room is China. China is drooling over Taiwan and the Taiwanese are watching how we deal with Putin in Ukraine. The surprise is that China hasn’t taken advantage of a weak US president distracted by Ukraine and presented him with the possibility of hostilities on two fronts. And you think Biden is confused now?

Where Are The A-10s?

The Russian's 40-mile long convoy that bogged down in northern Ukraine could have been sitting ducks for a flight of A-10 Warthogs. Unfortunately, Ukraine doesn't have them and NATO isn't about to step in and provide any. Production of the A-10 ceased in 1984, though it has been upgraded several times. The Air Force has been trying to get rid of them for years in favor of something sexier like the F-35, but they've been stymied so far. A few squadrons of A-10s, which were designed for tank busting, would go a long way in Ukraine's war against the Russians.

What Biden Didn't Mention in His State of the Union

Defense. He said not a word about defense. With Russia on the march and NATO scrambling to position themselves to repel any Russian incursion into a NATO country, Biden said nothing about upgrading our own depleted forces.

We have a navy of about 250 ships and need 500. Most of our frontline fighters were designed in the 1980s and are in need of upgrades. Much of our military leadership is spouting nonsense about climate change being our greatest security threat even as the Russians are shelling Europe's largest nuclear power plant in Enerhodar. Our military ranks are being "purged" of white supremacists in a bow to wokeness.

The US has allowed our own military and defense capabilities to wither on the vine as funds are diverted to social programs (in other words, vote buying), diversity training, and tossing cash from helicopters in order to convince the deplorables their government cares about them. You can't make this stuff up.

The Scary Part?

The Democrats have the remainder of this year to inflict as much economic damage as possible before the November 2022 mid-term elections render Joe Biden a lame duck president after the Republicans take over the legislative branch in January 2023. This assumes Vladimir Putin is bluffing when he threatens to unleash nuclear weapons and change the current cold war into a hot one. If Putin is as insane as some analysts think he is, then all of this may be moot as we hide from radiation and try to put out the fires caused by the overwhelming stupidity that abounds within political circles these days.

And that is scary.

As illegal immigrants left the aircraft, a government contractor explained that the operation was kept “down low”—with few witnesses and no media attention—to avoid attracting the public’s attention to the operation. One contractor said if the public ever found out it would represent a “betrayal of the American people.”

While the left-wing media has largely ignored the border crisis, Fox News has broadcast exclusive footage of large groups of mostly single, male immigrants being led away from immigration centers by representatives of NGOs (non-government organizations) to be given bus tickets to wherever in the country they want to go. While many are released to family members that are already settled here, there is little or no vetting and precious little follow-up to find out where these people actually go when they get off the bus at their destination. The worst part? This is all being done at taxpayer expense. If an illegal immigrant does not have family here who can buy him or her a bus ticket, the NGO buys it and bills the government for reimbursement. Taxpayers are paying for those chartered aircraft, fuel, and crews and the government contractors who coordinate them.

New York City recently passed legislation allowing illegal immigrants who have established residency in the city for mere weeks to vote in local elections. Does anyone think it will stop there?

Current reports are while the bulk of the immigrants used to come from the usual countries—Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala, etc.—now just as many are arriving from Russia, India, Venezuela, and Syria. In December alone, according to Axios, 800 people from India illegally crossed the border into Arizona. Likewise, according the the Washington Examiner, 500 Turks, 2000 Russians, and 300 from Ukraine. No one in the government is really vetting these people. They’re not being screened for Covid. They’re just being secretly trafficked throughout the country by the biggest trafficker of all…Joe Biden.

This travesty will continue at least until the November mid-term elections and perhaps until 2024 when one hopes the American people come to their senses and purge the government of the leftists who have so gravely failed to protect our southern border, even as they dedicate American troops and millions of dollars in equipment and aid to defend the border of Ukraine.

A country without borders is not a country. The Democrats have been trying to “fundamentally transform” America since the Obama administration, but they have not explained what they’re transforming us into. Many Americans are starting to get an idea.

Human trafficking is a crime no matter who does it. It’s an even greater crime when it’s committed by the President of the United States. Americans have been aware for some time how corrupt the Federal government is. Watch out for the kickback to come in 2022 and 2024.

As is their wont, the intelligence agencies promptly leaked a few incriminating documents claiming they in fact warned Biden that this was the likely outcome of a precipitous pullout. A second grade teacher in Muskogee could have told him that was coming.

Not content to simply hide at Camp David, Biden emerged again on Wednesday to give a press briefing on…Covid 19. Not a word about Afghanistan and, as on Tuesday, not a question taken from reporters. But Biden still wasn't through. During an interview Wednesday night with George Stephanopoulos, Biden became defensive when asked about Afghans crowded into Air Force planes and falling to their deaths.

"That was four or five days ago," Biden snapped.

No, it was Monday…two days before.

There is little doubt, though most Democrats won't admit it, Biden forced the rapid withdrawal to meet a self-imposed political deadline, originally September 11th but moved up to August 31st due to the bad optics of surrendering on the anniversary of the event that started the war. Getting the troops out was critical to his goal; getting the American and Afghan civilians out was an afterthought. The resulting optic to the rest of the world of the American military cutting and running while abandoning civilians to their fate will frame the story of America's ill-begotten adventure in Afghanistan.

Equally disastrous was the briefing delivered by General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Wednesday when they acknowledged the US doesn't have the capability to rescue Americans and Afghan allies from the country. In a CNN analysis, Stephen Collinson states "At the Pentagon news conference, Milley and Austin inadvertently revealed the deficiencies of the US evacuation."

Nope, not inadvertent. It was intentional to let the American people know the orders initiating the fiasco came directly from the Commander in Chief.

America, in fact, is entirely dependent on the good graces of a bunch of militant goatherds for any chance of success in rescuing our people. The Taliban itself is fractious, however, and proclamations of cooperation from its leaders may mean little to the uneducated young Afghans that make up its army.

In today's Wall Street Journal, columnist Kimberly Strassel writes "The Democratic Party owns this American humiliation and is already worried about the political fallout." In his CNN Analysis, Collinson notes "Anytime a commander in chief does not appear in control or is in denial of obvious developments is a moment that threatens to inflict political damage." That pretty much sums up the problem. The politicians aren't concerned about Afghanistan or its people or our citizens stranded behind Taliban lines. Oh no, they're worried about the political fallout. What are a few dead bodies compared to losing an election?

Here's what should really frighten Americans. Biden is clearly suffering from senility and his condition appears to be advancing. That raises the question of who's really governing the country? Certainly not Kamala Harris. She's trying to remain invisible after being thrown under the bus by Biden on the border crisis. She clearly wants nothing to do with this disaster. So, who's pulling the strings?

On that note, what has become of Dr. Jill Biden, our First Lady? Remember her? Other than a brief appearance at the Tokyo Olympics, she has been seen less than any other First Lady in recent memory.

The concern now is that the Taliban or one of its factions, which have so far refrained from taking American hostages, may begin to do so. They needn't bother. They already have the ultimate hostage…Joe Biden.

Wouldn’t you just love to be a fly on the wall of the Oval Office?

The world is being reordered and there is little America can do about it. Lack of strength, lack of will, and rot from within are rapidly reducing America to a declining, has-been empire. This weekend, the United States declared victory in Afghanistan and slunk away with its tail between its legs. That will doubtless be reassuring to any remaining allies the next time we invite them to support us in another (mis)adventure.

Expansion-minded despots in other countries have noticed. Vladimir Putin of Russia has always considered Ukraine Russian territory. He should move now to retake the parts he doesn't already control. After all, who's going to stop him? A toothless NATO? Germany? Belgium? Joe Biden?

China will doubtless move on Taiwan soon, correctly perceiving a war-weary America will be reluctant to put up much resistance. Since Russia and China have expanded cooperation in recent months, what’s to stop them both from coordinating simultaneous invasions of Taiwan and Ukraine? By the time Joe Biden returns from vacation it’ll be over.

Having built up defenses in the South China Sea, China now threatens the Phillipines and Japan. Japan, in particular, is becoming increasingly concerned about China's advances in the western Pacific and the threat it poses to Japanese interests. Japan recently joined a consortium with the US, Australia, and India to determine ways to deter Chinese aggression. Don't be surprised to see Japan change its long-standing policy and begin developing nuclear defensive weapons. After all, it's reliance on the US for defense seems on particularly shaky ground these days.

And how long before North Korea, perhaps with China's help, decides it's advantageous to move against South Korea? While we have a troop presence in South Korea, can the South Korean leadership be blamed, in light of Afghanistan, if it begins to doubt America's committment? Will Biden wake up one morning and, over his breakfast Cheerios, decide it's time to bring the troops home?

The reordering will not be confined to areas outside America's borders, however. The reordering is beginning within this country as well.

Counties in Oregon and northern California are seeking to secede and join Idaho, which more closely shares their values. West Virginia has invited western Virginia counties to join them to escape the socialist onslaught there. At some point, Florida and Texas will tire of federal diktats from a senile president and say "enough."

Once the big sort begins in this country, America's internal map will look strikingly different. Some regions, like the northeast, used to being culturally dominant, will find themselves isolated within their own bubbles. If the deplorables in flyover country who control agriculture and energy decide to cut off shipments of food and fuel to the left and right coasts, the formerly ascendant "elites" may find themselves reduced to snaring squirrels in Central Park for food. Once it starts, who's to say where it ends?

The proverb says "May you live in interesting times." It was meant as a curse. Things are about to get interesting.

“WHEN in the Course of human Events, it becomes necessary for one People to dissolve the Political Bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the Powers of the Earth, the separate and equal Station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent Respect to the Opinions of Mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the Separation.” —Declaration of Independence, 1776

It will come as no surprise to anyone that President Obama in January 2013 said "nyet" to a petition signed by 126,000 people asking if Texas could secede from the Union. The petition was posted on the White House's "We the People" web site. If a petition garners at least 25,000 signatures it receives a response from the White House.

But what if the White House had said yes? Could Texas succeed as a separate nation? Check out the video below:

The video ultimately focuses on the legality of secession by any state, not just Texas. Secession that triggered the first Civil War wasn’t legal, either, but that didn’t stop the southern states from leaving. If several states decide to secede, there’s probably little that could be done to stop it. Americans don’t have the stomach for a violent internal conflict, so some accomodation will have to be made.

And if Texas did leave?

Besides the economic considerations, what else might Texas have in its favor? For starters, Texas has twenty-nine oil refineries capable of an output of 5.25 million barrels per day. With one of the world's largest oil ports south of Houston and access to its own onshore and offshore oil wells, Texas would be one of the largest petroleum processing countries in the world. It would have enormous leverage when dealing with the U.S. and revenues from refined oil products would provide critical income which would raise Texans' standard of living while lowering their taxes even more. Even considering the left’s Green New Dreams, any energy outside of Texas’s needs could be sold to other states or exported.

What might sucession look like?

2020 presidential election results by state (CNN)

Let’s carry the pipe dream a little farther and look at the electoral map from the 2020 presidential election. Let's assume that all of the red states on this map tire of kowtowing to Washington and decide to join Texas. Let's call this new country the Free States of America (FSA) and the remainder of the old USA the Socialist States of America (SSA). Several things immediately become evident.

The socialists, statists, and Marxists which are predominately found on the left and right coasts are immediately isolated in much smaller countries. Washington, Oregon, and Nevada would be tied together and would face the choice of going down the economic drain with California or defecting to the FSA. Colorado and New Mexico, bordered by the FSA, would face a similar choice. Go blue or go red. Florida could join the FSA or defect to Cuba.

But, it gets more interesting than that. The original Confederate States were formed when entire states seceded from the Union. Nice and clean, right? All of the seceding states kept their boundaries. That’s not necessarily the case now.

Greater Idaho (greateridaho.org)

Just this month, five counties in Oregon voted to secede and begin negotiations to join Idaho. This is in addition to two counties that had previously voted to do so. Idaho has responded favorably to the proposal. According to Greater Idaho lead petitioner Mike McCarter, “This election proves that rural Oregon wants out of Oregon. If Oregon really believes in liberal values such as self-determination, the Legislature won’t hold our counties captive against our will. If we’re allowed to vote for which government officials we want, we should be allowed to vote for which government we want as well.” A look at the map above reveals that the new Idaho would rival Texas in size, population, and infuence.

The Oregon secessionist counties are looking at a negotiated separation, but the truth is there is little Oregon can do to stop the eastern counties if they declare for Idaho. What will Oregon do, send in Antifa? If Idaho accepts them, it’s pretty much a fait accompli.

There are counties in Northern California who are also petitioning to join neighboring Idaho. Let’s assume they do. The same could probably be said for eastern Washington State. Let’s assume further that Oklahoma and Kansas join Texas in seceding. What happens to nearby Colorado?

While Colorado is politically a blue state, that’s mostly true of the Denver, Boulder, Ft. Collins metropolitan areas where most of Colorado’s population lives. Pitkin County, which contains the rich socialist enclave of Aspen, also votes blue, no surprise. El Paso County, which contains Colorado Springs, is reliably red, as are most of the counties east of the mountains. So perhaps they decide to secede to Kansas, Oklahoma, or Texas. Even today, there are some northern Colorado counties petitioning to join Wyoming. Colorado’s western counties could defect to solidly red Utah, which saw Biden win only the Salt Lake City environs.

In New Mexico, the counties surrounding Albuquerque and ever-so-hip Santa Fe went Democrat in the 2020 presidential election. But most of the remainder of New Mexico went Republican. Let’s send the eastern counties to Texas, also.

Arizona is probably not nearly as blue as the 2020 election results would indicate, but is so polluted with California refugees that it’s too hard to call. Arizona was flipped from red to blue in the 2020 election, but the margin was narrow and there’s a good chance it could flip back to red. In that case, western New Mexico can become part of Arizona.

Revisiting California, it’s not hard to envision the eastern part of California, i.e. any counties more than 50 miles from the Pacific Coast, saying buh-bye to the the rest of the state and joining up with the western counties of Arizona.

Nevada gets really interesting. Today, the state is 80-percent controlled by the federal government. In 2020, Nevada went for Biden, but almost solely because of the Reno and Las Vegas metropolitian areas. The rest of the state went for Trump. If the red counties defect to Utah and the eastern California counties, Nevada basically ceases to exist. In fact, since the governor and legislature control only about 20-percent of the state, it barely exists today. And all of that Federal land? Those Nevada counties get all of that land back under their control. In fact, all of the western states have large swathes of land controlled by the Feds that would revert back to local control.

And let’s not overlook West Virginia, who last year invited western Virginia counties to secede and join the state after Gov. Ralph Northam’s assault on gun rights and the Second Amendment. They should take them up on the offer.

At this point, the only thing between the west coast counties of socialist California and the red states of the intermountain and Mid-West states are a few urban socialist counties isolated in the middle of Colorado and in New Mexico and Montana.

Georgia is the only state in the south to swing for Biden, flipping from red to blue. The smart money says that will not last if the surrounding states bolt. Like Arizona, Georgia is not nearly as blue as the left likes to imagine.

So, what’s left of the “old” USA

Which leaves the remainder of the old USA, the socialist workers' paradise in the Northeast, as the heart and soul of the SSA. As some businesses defect to the FSA, with its lower taxes, abundant energy, and more friendly business climate, it’s not hard to imagine the SSA would more and more come to resemble East Germany, bleak and brown, with lousy weather and high taxes, populated by the last of the old hippies and aging liberal intellectuals recreating on rocky beaches fronted by freezing water in July.

The FSA would control the route of the Keystone Pipeline, which could be restarted, along with the rich agricultural breadbasket of the continent and the oil fracking fields of the Great Plains states, not to mention great pheasant hunting. Add the refining capacity of Louisiana’s 17 refineries (3.6 million barrels per day) and the FSA really becomes an energy powerhouse. The fishing industry along the gulf coast would provide additional income and food for consumption in the FSA as well as for export to the starving masses who stayed behind in the SSA. Perhaps the FSA could trade some Gulf shrimp for Maine lobster.

No surprise, then, the FSA would also control most of the food, energy, and fuel supplies that the present USA enjoys. That’s a lot of leverage. Cut off food and fuel to the SSA and things get dire indeed. California enjoys some of the best shipping ports in the world, which would give it a considerable advantage, but when your nation consists of a few former counties in a strip along the coast, you don’t have much of a country. Not to mention importing all of your goods is expensive.

What about the military?

To get a feel for how the military would respond to secesson of this magnitude, one has to look at the basic make-up of military personnel.

According to a 2019 article by Pew Research, there are roughly 1.39 million men and women on active duty as of 2017. No surpise, the average ages of service members is lower than that of the population in general. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) in 2020 blew a hole in the myth that most service members come from poor or disadvantaged demographics, forced into the military in an attempt to escape their underprivileged backgrounds. Most members of the military come from affluent, middle-class families. The outstanding question is whether the current movement toward wokeness in the US military has any staying power or fades under the next administration.

Military recruits, as expected, come from all fifty states and the District of Columbia, but the top five states are California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and New York. The New England states, despite their relatively high populations, rank fairly low in numbers of recruits. No surprise there, either.

The CFR also looked at “a share of a jurisdiction’s recruits as a share of residents between the ages of eighteen and twenty four.…” As the CFR points out, the representation looks a bit different from that perspective, with southern and western states overrepresented.

What this means is most recruits come from states with a strong tradition of military service, hunting, fishing, and gun ownership. They are affluent and relatively well-educated. How many of these personnel will want to fight for states which seek to restrict or eliminate all of these activities?

The FSA would also become an instant nuclear power, immediately inheriting a cornucopia of nuclear armed missiles throughout the plains states, as well as Warren Air Force Base in Cheyenne, which controls and maintains many of the silos. There are many other major military facilities located in these states. I supposed it’s too much to expect every military unit based in the FSA to swear allegiance to the new country, but the left, with their well-known hatred and contempt for all things military, might be in for an unpleasant surprise.

County by county presidential results, 2020

The great sort begins

No one is pretending any of this would be simple, but it’s unlikely the situation would devolve into the bloody conflict the country enjoyed in the 1860s. The FSA has far too many guns for that. The Prius-driving, man-bun wearing, man-purse carrying Gen-Xers that would make up the SSA’s “army” would be wiped out in short order. More likely, the SSA would contract with the FSA for military protection in exchange for, say, port access on the east and west coasts. In other words, sue for peace. Better yet, the FSA can demand hard cash if the SSA’s currency is worth anything at that point.

There’s a lot of hard, anxious work to be done before any of this could actually take place, but movement in that direction has already begun. With the votes by Oregon counties and attempts to hold a vote in northern Colorado counties and northern California and a similar movement shaping up in eastern Washington state, the door has been opened.

Michael Anton, a research fellow at Hillsdale College and senior fellow at the Clairmont Institute, is the author of a book called The Stakes: America at the Point of No Return. Anton’s book covers much of the approach of this article, that allowing counties to realign themselves politically with like-minded states could provide Americans with the breathing room they need to avoid civil war. If the blue states resist and keep treating the red state population as knuckle-dragging rednecks while attempting to keep their bootheels on conservative necks, Anton acknowledges that civil war is a possibility. Anton’s position is summarized nicely in this current article in The American Mind.

The interesting thing is that a subject which could not be spoken of out loud is now being freely discussed. Gee, does that sound like the Wuhan lab leak ‘conspiracy theory?’ The harder the left pushes its fundamental transformation of America into something resembling the old Soviet Union, the more citizens will seek to align themselves with other politically like-minded governments. It can be done peacefully, as the counties in Oregon, Colorado, and Virginia are attempting, or it can be done violently. Allowing people to realign according to their wishes may be the only way to preserve the Union in something resembling its current state. The choice is the Left’s to make.

In 1955, author Leonard Wibberley wrote a satirical story called The Mouse That Roared, which was made into a movie starring Peter Sellers in 1959. In the story, the tiny (three miles by five miles) European Duchy of Grand Fernwick, with its pre-industrial economy, declares war on the United States in hopes the Duchy will be defeated and enjoy the largess the US granted under the Marshall Plan to vanquished countries at the end of World War II.

In Wibberley's delightful novel, the Duchy of Grand Fernwick accidentally defeats its larger foe, in part because the United States doesn't realize it's been at war for two months. I can imagine the SSA seeking a similar outcome. After all, a society built on the dole will be in its element seeking a handout from the Free States of America.

Note: an earlier version of this article was previously published on my old Silence is Surrender website. It has been updated to reflect current events.

Last week, Colorado was the scene of yet another mass shooting, following one earlier in the week in Atlanta. Colorado is no stranger to such events…Columbine, the Aurora theater shooting, and now Boulder. One thing all of these shootings have in common is all occurred in the Denver-Boulder metropolitan areas. These areas are extremely liberal and tend toward the toughest, most restrictive gun laws. Victimhood is a feature, not a bug.

The latest concealed carry permit statistics I could find, for 2017, showed just over 8,000 licensed concealed carry permit holders in Boulder County. El Paso County, which includes Colorado Springs, has around 45,000 licensed concealed carriers. The socialists are always telling us that people with guns constitute a serious menace to public safety, so why aren’t mass shootings happening in El Paso County?

It goes without saying that El Paso County could have a horrendous mass shooting tomorrow. There are no geographical boundaries to violence. Nevertheless, with the constant narrative from the left about the dangers of gun-toting rednecks, why aren’t the streets of Colorado Springs littered with bodies?

Part of the reason, if anyone bothers to look, is that licensed concealed carriers are some of the most law-abiding people around. Most take their responsibilities seriously, practicing, getting refresher training, and handling their firearms safely. The number of licensed concealed carriers arrested for gun crimes is lower than the crime rate for police officers nationwide. In short, the licensed carriers are of relatively low concern for law enforcement.

Think about this. What are the odds the Boulder shooter could have walked into a grocery store in El Paso County in his underwear with an AR-style pistol and succeeded in killing ten people without encountering resistance from an armed concealed carrier? How many shots would he have fired before some concealed carrier stopped him? The odds are certainly higher than in Boulder County.

Which brings me to my initial point. In today’s society, everyone is now taught from an early age that they’re victims. Victims of the white male patriarchy, victims of systemic racism, oppressed by a rigged system, victimized by greedy corporations, and robbed of success by Wall Street, the rich, the privileged. People who think of themselves only in terms of victimhood just naturally become victims. Most people in Boulder would never consider taking steps to defend themselves beyond running.

Government, we are told, is responsible for our safety and well-being. Government will take care of us. For most people, fighting off an attacker or taking responsibility for their own self-defense is a foreign concept. That’s not their responsibility, but that of the police, at least those they haven’t voted to defund. For the left, victimhood is the foundational quicksand on which their existence is based.

In El Paso County, in contrast, most of the people are more conservative, though that is changing as more refugees from lefty states like California move in. People believe in taking responsibility for themselves. The number of armed concealed carriers, greater than Denver and Boulder counties combined, is reflective of that attitude. The high number of concealed carriers in El Paso county does not guarantee that one will be available during any specific incident, but there’s at least a higher probability that someone would step in and bring an end to the affair.

Soaring gun sales in America are a recognition by many people that government is impotent against the type of violence seen in the last two weeks and the only protection they have is that which they provide for themselves. Joe Biden’s gun control proposals, even if passed in Congress, will fail in reality. People are not going to surrender their only means of protection to a corrupt and inept government. Mass disobedience will follow.

There are two types of people…victims and the rest of us. If cowering behind a stack of Lays Potato Chips is your idea of self-defense, go for it.

Photo by Alex Iby on Unsplash

The unsourced article was interesting for noting that downloads of the Parler app have declined precipitously on the Android platform. On IOS, Parler as of this morning ranked number five in the news category, down from a brief stint as number one. The article also mentioned a sharp decline in people using the app, which would seem to represent a loss of interest in the service. Assuming this to be true, it’s interesting to speculate as to why.

Parler advertised itself as a platform for people to express views freely without fear of censorship. Almost immediately, Parler ran into the same problems as other social media platforms—nothing was keeping the Left from signing up and trolling the Right. There was the ever-present problem of idiots posting insulting comments, trolls, and lunatic conspiracists. Not surprising, Parler found itself in the uncomfortable position of choosing to allow its content to be degraded as Twitter and Facebook had, or moderating content and comments, opening themselves up to claims that they were censoring content. In some instances, Parler chose the latter, with predictable results.

Parler’s biggest weakness is one that afflicts so much of the media on both the left and the right these days. Its primary reason for existence appears to be stoking the outrage machine. Call it Outrage, Inc. One of the most prolific stokers is Dan Bongino, former Secret Service Agent, frequent Fox News contributor, and columnist/podcaster. Bongino is also an investor in Parler.

Bongino is, if nothing else, strident. Whether it’s on Fox News or one of his podcasts, outrage and indignation are the currency of the day. If you weren’t angry before reading or watching, Bongino’s delivery will have you foaming at the mouth by the end. This is not to say he doesn’t have legitimate points, but there’s no such thing as a measured delivery. It’s exhausting.

Most of the other contributors found on Parler include Representatives, Senators, conservative and right-wing pundits, and right-leaning media outlets, many relatively unknown outside of Parler. Mark Levin, a frequent Fox News contributor is generally reasoned in his viewpoints and presentations but, for some reason, lately seems angrier when on Parler. This is not to say that contributors to Parler are not worth reading; many of them certainly are and there are plenty who hew to the center right. Too many, however, offered unquestioning support for Donald Trump’s conspiracy theories about election theft and fraudulent votes and his insistence he really won the election. While there is certainly fraud in a complex and enormous undertaking that is a national election, the fact that Trump has won only two minor lawsuits out of over fifty, and was denied a hearing by no less than the conservative Supreme Court, should tell you everything you need about his claims of victory.

This hasn’t stopped some Parler contributors from continuing to promote Trump’s “victory” and lawsuits like the ludicrous failed Texas lawsuit that was just bounced by the Supreme Court. I get it. Trump lost. No one saw it coming, except for pretty much everyone with half a brain. Trump could have cruised to a second term on his accomplishments easily with just a little effort to grow into the job, had he stopped Tweeting like a fourteen-year old, refrained from high school-level insults, and concentrated on keeping the Republicans in line and corralling a few of the remaining moderate Democrats.

Biden won. Get over it. The single most important job ahead is to make sure Georgia Republicans Loeffler and Perdue retain their seats so a Republican-held Senate can act as a brake on Biden’s worst impulses. Yet, there is surprising little mention of the Georgia runoff on Parler. One would be hard-pressed to even know that this vitally important election is on the horizon.

I’m one of those who have decreased my reading on Parler. The strident outrage—and that of Fox News, One America News Network, Newsmax, and others, never mind CNN, MSNBC, and their ilk—coupled with the constant shutdown restrictions, Covid-19 deaths, and now the infighting over who will get the new vaccine first is just too exhausting. A self-professed news junkie, I’ve gone on hiatus. I hit the headlines on my computer in the morning, then ignore it the rest of the day. Outrage, Inc. will probably survive just fine without me.

While the state went for Biden in the presidential election, Georgia is still largely center right politically and Republicans would comfortably be expected to win a runoff election. Republican officials, however, are less certain these days.

The Trump campaign’s constant claims of electoral fraud could discourage Republicans from going to the polls on January 5th, ensuring both Warnock and Ossoff are elected and giving the Senate a 50-50 tie between the two parties, with Vice President Kamala Harris casting tie-breaking votes as President of the Senate. There would be little the Republicans could do to put the brakes on some of the Democrat’s more radical policies.

Trump attorney Lin Wood, at a pro-Trump “Stop the Steal” rally in Georgia on December 2nd, told the crowd “They have not earned your vote,” referring to Senators Kelly and Perdue. “Don't you give it to them. Why would you go back and vote in another rigged election, for God's sake! Fix it! You gotta fix it!"

Former Trump attorney Sidney Powell has made similar allegations and Trump himself has been one of the foremost promoters of conspiracy theories about massive voter fraud and rigged Dominion voting machines. Republican officials fear this may serve to discourage Republicans from voting, suppressing the vote enough to tilt the election into the Democrat column. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich called Powell’s and Wood’s assertions “totally destructive.”

President Trump will travel to Georgia tomorrow, December 5th, for a hangar rally that may be a double-edged sword for the two Republican candidates. The fates of both candidates and the direction of the country may hinge on which Trump shows up.

If he talks up candidates Loeffler and Perdue and explains to voters why their re-elections are so critical, this will be a big boost to getting the faithful out on Election Day. If Trump, ever the narcissist, chooses to make the rally about himself and continues to promote voter fraud conspiracies and attack Republican officials, then he may drag down both candidates and the nation. His legacy will be in further tatters, as will the country when the Democrats are through with it.

In reality, a second civil war or some division of the nation is being discussed more and more openly. On Amazon, one can find several recent books discussing the issue, such as Tom Kawczynski’s The Coming Civil War or Michael Anton’s excellent book The Stakes.

The Claremont Institute’s website American Mind is currently featuring three essays collectively called A House Dividing: Bringing what is said in private into the open. All are written pseudonymously, for reasons not entirely clear. Nevertheless, the three perspectives are thought-provoking and well worth reading.

We’ll all get through this

The first article, Madison Wins, Factions Lose by Geoffrey M. Vaughan, argues that the Constitutional underpinnings of our republic are stronger than the rapidly forming factions that threaten to tear it apart.

The partisan divide in the country is now, in the most contested states, as close to 50/50 as it has ever been. Litigation, recounts, and runoffs may leave in suspense the exact details of who will win what seats and which parties will control which legislatures. We won’t know who won what for a while. Yet despite all this uncertainty there is one clear winner: James Madison.

Madison’s theory, outlined in the Federalist Papers #10, was that by extending the republic, i.e. adding population, it would be more difficult for factions to form, since many people might disagree on some things but would agree on many more things.

Madison’s prescience appears confirmed when one considers the results of the just completed election. Remember when Democrats preached “demography is destiny?” The idea was minorities, blacks, hispanics, immigrants both legal and illegal, were naturally drawn to the Democratic Party and would eventually ensure its ascendancy for all time. Yet, in the 2020 election and to a large degree the 2016 contest, Trump drew voters from the ranks of working-class Democrats and many of the minority groups. In fact, the number of voters in the black and hispanic ranks voting for Trump increased this year.

It turned out that most minority groups are not as monolithic as Democrats have presumed and taken for granted. Hispanics, many of whom had escaped to the United States from failed socialist countries, had no desire to return to that political system. Many African Americans recognized that under President Trump black unemployment reached its lowest percentage in decades as a result of the Trump tax cuts and deregulation that spurred economic growth and it’s attendant hiring.

Madison’s presumption that factions would not form in a populous republic was based on shared interests. But today? According to Vaughan,

What we see now is a different type of faction. The growing division in this country is between ideologues. Ideologues are committed to an unalterable way of looking at the world, a pre-packaged explanation that requires little to no thought to apply: “structural racism,” “heteronormativity,” etc.

The counties band together

It is these ideological divisions that are the subject of “Professor Tom Trenchard’s” essay 2020: A Retrospective From 2025, a fictionalized look back at where the country might go after the 2020 election. Trenchard foresees a future immediately following the election where red counties band together as the United American Counties to counter the dictates of the urban Left.

The concept is hardly preposterous. Today, the counties of northern California are proposing to secede from that state and join Idaho. Several southeastern counties in Oregon are also entertaining the idea. When Governor Ralph Northam began restricting gun rights in Virginia, driven by urban Democrats in the counties around Washington, D.C., the state of West Virginia invited the counties in Western Virginia to secede and join them.

In Trenchard’s view, looking back at 2020 from his fictional perspective in 2025,

The problem was that the election dispute coincided with a deep polarization of world views and American historical narratives that had been building for decades. This polarization had proceeded to the extent of annihilating any possible common ground, rendering attempts at compromise or a “live and let live” approach impossible. We had become two Americas; and, as Lincoln had said, “a house divided against itself cannot stand.”

An amicable split

Finally, in The Separation, “Rebecca” argues not for secession so much as an amicable negotiated split. She points to a Pew Research Center survey taken in 2017 which illustrates America’s rapidly disappearing political center.

America needs a separation, not a divorce. The objective is to save America—not destroy it. The Separation is an orderly agreement allowing Red and Blue America political living space while acknowledging the practical bonds of geography, commerce, currency, debt, diplomacy and military force.

These articles by the Claremont Institute make for compelling reading and lay bare what many of us have been privately thinking. The authors take the more hopeful view that a separation can be accomplished without violence and preserve those areas of mutual interest while allowing people to live under the political system they most desire.